Explanations for Putinism

Pat Buchanan ran a column today on the rise of Putinism in the world:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/the-global-rise-of-putinism/

Although Mr. Buchanan seems to imply that the Putin formula has been brought on by bad American entertainment, I would suggest an alternative hypothesis for the emergence of strong nationalist figures in Russia, Japan and India:  China.

China has over 1 billion people, and has a GNP pegged to exceed our GNP sometime in the next decade, perhaps as early as 2020.  Further, looking at China's growth potential, if China develops nationally on par with Hong Kong, Mearsheimer estimates that it will have a GNP 4 times as large as the United States.  What does this all mean, and why does it relate to Russia, India and Japan?  It is pretty simple:  population + economic production yields the outer limit on the size of your military.  If China has 1.0 billion people, and an equivalent economy to ours, the Chinese government can match and probably exceed America's force capability.  Further, if China can reach Hong Kong levels of affluence, America will not be able to match China's military capacity.  We may be able to protect ourselves defensively through our nuclear capacity, but we will potentially be in an arms race, similar to our prior run with the Soviet Union, but this time as the weak party.  Now, undoubtedly, China loves Japan, and may have a warm spot in their hearts for Russia and India, but can they trust their neighbors, and the United States to look after their interests in the world?  Probably not, and given that they can project the same or greater force than America in the coming days, they will probably feel an increasing need for elbow room in South Asia.

How do you prepare for a coming fight with a dragon?  Well, it is probably not a bad strategy to centralize power in a strong man, and nationalize strategic industries so you can quickly put your economy on a war footing should the need arise.  In case the case of Russia, they also have a clear frenemy in the world, above and beyond China (I mean Germany, of course). 

I have left out Turkey, which Mr. Buchanan addresses, although I do not believe that China is a major factor in the transformation of Turkey.  Instead, Turkey has an ethnically and religiously diverse neighbor to its South that used to be held together by the iron fist of a totalitarian police state.  In the name of democracy and the war on terror, we invaded this country and created a power vacuum to be filled with a written constitution espousing liberal democracy.  Surprise, surprise, all these ethnically and religiously diverse ethnic groups started butchering each other and competing for territory once the big bad dictator disappeared.  One of these groups, the Kurds, has a large contingent in the East of Turkey.  In addition, Turkey is fighting with Israel, an ethno-nationalist state seeking hegemony in the Middle East.  If you are going to have to go head to head with ethno-nationalist would-be hegemons and separatist uprisings in your East, maybe you will elect a strong man?

But then again, maybe it is just too much T & A in American films.